CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-03-20T14:42ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24321/-1
CME Note: Bright, wide and asymmetrical shape CME seen to the NE in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The eruption is characterized by an erupting sigmoid/S-shaped structure centered around N27E20, though dimming and an EUV wave signature is limited to longitudes closer to 30-50 degrees east. On arrival signature from Tarik Salman, LASSOS: background solar wind is quite different from normal levels with higher density (normal density around 5/cc) and speed (normal speed around 350-400 km/s)-a possible reason for this ICME not to have an associated shock. The start of the magnetic flux rope likely coincides with the enhancement in the total field and drop in density and the end of it is around 2023-04-24T09Z (based on an increase in temperature beyond this point and the field components becoming less coherent)
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T09:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T10:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 749.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 452.307 Acceleration: 1.23334 Duration in seconds: 244394.76 Duration in days: 2.8286431 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.23 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 753.7 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/03/2023 Time: 10:35 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 22.47 hour(s)
Difference: -1.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-03-22T10:42Z
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